Democratic Voters Think They Have Multiple Options For Beating Trump Next Year
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren are both largely seen by their party as capable of pulling out a win next year against President Donald Trump, according to a national HuffPost/YouGov survey taken immediately after last week’s primary debate.
Sixty percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they think Biden is capable of winning the general election, with a virtually identical 59% saying the same of Warren. Polls taken after the previous three debates had given Biden an edge of between 6 points and 13 points on that metric. Roughly half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters currently think Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is capable of winning, with a third or fewer saying the same of any of the other candidates included in the survey.
Overall, 71% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters name two or more candidates as capable of beating Trump, with 53% saying there are three or more viable options.
There are a few different ways for pollsters to ask questions about electability ― and when the question is about who has the highest chance of winning, Biden generally continues to dominate. In Quinnipiac’s most recent survey, for instance, 48% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, with just 21% saying the same of Warren.
But other polling also suggests that Biden is no longer the only candidate that most Democrats think is capable of pulling out a win. In last week’s Economist/YouGov poll, two-thirds of Democratic primary voters thought Biden would probably beat Trump, with 55% saying Warren would probably win and 54% saying the same of Sanders.
Other findings from the new HuffPost/YouGov survey:
Overall, 59% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters now say they have a least a good idea of whom they’ll vote for, up from 52% who said the same in September. About a third say they’re still making up their minds. An 83% majority currently say they’re at least satisfied with the 2020 Democratic field, with 45% describing themselves as enthusiastic.
As in previous surveys, Warren stands out as a potential consensus candidate, both garnering the broadest enthusiasm and causing the least consternation among members of her party. About half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters pick her as someone they’d be enthusiastic to see nominated, with just 9% saying they’d be upset. She’s trailed most closely on this metric by Sanders (37% enthusiastic, 19% upset), Buttigieg (30% enthusiastic, 15% upset) and Biden (37% enthusiastic, 25% upset). Gabbard attracts the most resistance among the candidates included in the survey, with about a third saying they’d be upset to have her as the nominee.
Thirty percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who saw at least clips of the primary debate last Tuesday said they came away with an improved view of Warren, with an equal number saying the same of Buttigieg, and a quarter saying they’d left with an improved view of Sanders.
Use the widget below to further explore the results of the HuffPost/YouGov survey, using the menu at the top to select survey questions and the buttons at the bottom to filter the data by subgroups:
The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Oct. 16-17 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.
HuffPost has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.
Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some but not all potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.
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